集合海浪预报的发展与应用回顾-海洋预报

集合海浪预报的发展与应用回顾

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京100081;
2. 国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室, 北京100081

分类号：P731.33

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2014·31·第六期（79-85）

摘要：

总结了国内外集合海浪预报的发展及应用现状,现有集合海浪预报的方法及优缺点.以NOAA/NCEP机构为例,给出了集合海浪主流预报产品的种类,通过集合预报产品的分析可以看出,集合海浪预报能够将传统的确定性预报扩展至概率预报领域,可给出更多可能出现的未来状态,能提供单纯确定性预报所不能提供的额外信息,已成为国际上业务化海洋学未来发展的重要方向之一.

In this paper, development and application of ensemble wave forecast are summarized, as well as the ensemble wave forecasting methods and their characteristics. Ensemble wave forecasting products are listed, which shows that ensemble wave forecast can expand wave forecast from deterministic forecasting field to probability forecasting field, and can present more additional forecasting information. According to ensemble wave forecast, all possible scenarios of future wave situation could be performed. It has been concluded that ensemble forecast is the best method to improve precision of wave forecast, especially the medium-term and long-term wave forecast. It is anticipated that development of ensemble wave forecast will become main trend of wave forecast with development of computer performance and ensemble weather forecast.

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