水母暴发因素及模型研究的现状和展望

作者：季轩梁  刘桂梅  高姗

单位：国家海洋环境预报中心国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室, 北京 100081

关键词：水母 暴发因素 模型

分类号：Q178.1

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2013·30·第五期（84-91）

摘要：

自上世纪80年代,全球各海域逐渐出现水母大量繁殖现象,尤其近十年来,水母暴发事件频繁出现且有愈演愈烈趋势.针对这一现状,各国政府高度重视,并且越来越多的水生生物学家投身于水母暴发成因、分布及生活史等的研究中.同时,许多国外学者已开始利用数值模拟方法来研究水母的暴发因素.本文回顾了国内外众多学者对水母类暴发成因的实验研究,分别从水母各生活史阶段分析了温度、盐度以及营养条件等影响水母暴发的因素;分别从生活史模型、示踪物模型、气候预测模型和生态系统动力学模型这四个角度,探讨了研究水母暴发数值模型的进展和现状,分别从建模、参数选取、数据和改进方法等方面提出了对未来水母暴发因素和模型研究的几点认识,为进一步开展适用于我国近海海域水母暴发因素的机制研究,以及水母生态模型的数值模拟研究提供了相关的参考依据.

Jellyfish abundance has been increasing in numerous marine ecosystems worldwide since 1980s. In the recent ten years, jellyfish outbreak incidents occur frequently, and there is a growing trend. The governments and organizations have paid much attention to study the life history of jellyfish, as well as the formation mechanism of jellyfish blooms. The researchers establish dynamic model and life cycle model to reveal the factors and distribution characteristics of jellyfish bloom. This article reviews the current situation and perspective of jellyfish outbreak in domestic and international researches, and summarizes several important factors of jellyfish bloom in the laboratory experiments, such as the temperature, salinity, light and nutrient in growth stages of jellyfish. Moreover, the jellyfish model is also summarized to discuss the factors and mechanisms of jellyfish bloom, such as lifecycle model, tracer model, climate predication model and ecosystem dynamic model. Several suggestions are proposed to demonstrate the mechanism of jellyfish bloom in the aspects of modeling, parameter, data and improving method, which will provide the cogent evidence for the numerical modeling of jellyfish in the China offshore areas.

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