基于CVISS的风暴潮灾害脆弱性评估研究-海洋预报

基于CVISS的风暴潮灾害脆弱性评估研究

单位：1. 北京大学物理学院, 北京 100871;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室, 北京 100081

分类号：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2013·30·第六期（1-6）

摘要：

以我国大陆各沿海区县为评价单元，结合风暴潮灾害影响的特征，建立了海岸带风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价指标（Coastal Vulnerability Index on Storm Surge，CVISS）系统，参考海岸带脆弱性评估方法构建了海岸带风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价模型，实现了我国大陆海岸带风暴潮灾害脆弱性评估。研究结果表明，我国海岸带风暴潮脆弱性具有显著的空间异质性：风暴潮灾害脆弱性等级最高的区域包括位于辽东半岛的大连市，山东省的垦利县和广东省的汕头市；高度脆弱性的沿海区县在各沿海省份中均有分布；脆弱性中等级别以上的区域集中分布在濒临渤海湾的区县、浙南至闽北沿海区县、广东汕头至陆丰区县、珠江口以西的珠海和台山市，雷州半岛以西以及海南省的东部沿海区县。期望本研究方法和评估结果，能为我国海洋灾害风险管理提供科学参考。

In this paper, by taking county level administration regions as basic estimating units and considering the characteristics of storm surge disasters, we established an index system of coastal vulnerability index on storm surge (CVISS), and constructed an assessment model for CVISS. The assessment of CVISS on China continental coastal counties was realized. The coastal storm surge vulnerability of China shows significant spatial heterogeneity according to the results. Regions with the highest level of storm surge vulnerability in China are Dalian (located in Liaodong Peninsula), Kenli in Shandong province, Shantou in Guangdong province; counties with higher vulnerability level distribute in every coastal province; and regions with medium and above level of vulnerability are concentrated in the areas of the verge of Bohai Bay, the coastal counties from southern Zhejiang to northern Fujian, the coastal counties from Shantou to Lufeng, Zhuhai Taishan in Guangdong, west of Leizhou Peninsula and coastal counties in the eastern part of Hainan Province. This study is important for marine hazard risk management in China.

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