近百余年来西北太平洋SST长期变化趋势研究

作者：苏勤1  郑崇伟2  杨艳1  陈晓斌2

单位：1. 海洋出版社, 北京 100081; 2. 92538部队气象台, 辽宁大连 116041

关键词：西北太平洋 海表温度 变化趋势 变化周期 突变现象

分类号：P731.11

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2014·31·第二期（50-55）

摘要：

利用来自英国气象局Hadley中心的海表温度(SST—Sea Surface Temperature)资料,计算了近百余年来(1870—2010年)西北太平洋SST的整体变化趋势、变化趋势的区域性差异、季节性差异、变化周期、突变形势,结果表明:(1)近百余年来,西北太平洋的SST整体上以3.9×10-3℃/a的速度显著性逐年线性递增。在1870—1910年期间表现出缓慢的递减趋势,1910—1930年期间的SST为近百余年来的波谷,曲线走势非常平缓,1930年以后,SST持续性递增至今;(2)西北太平洋大部分海域的SST表现出显著性逐年线性递增趋势,近海的递增趋势强于大洋。近海的递增趋势基本都在3×10-3℃/a以上,福建和广东沿岸、台湾周边海域、琉球群岛-日本一带周边海域的递增趋势最为强劲,基本在9×10-3 ℃/a以上,高值中心可达12×10-3℃/a以上;仅在鄂霍次克海西部近海呈显著的递减趋势,-15×10-3— -9×10-3℃/a;(3)西北太平洋SST的变化趋势表现出较大的季节性差异,秋冬两季的递增趋势强于春夏两季。鄂霍次克海的SST在冬春两季表现出显著性递减趋势,在秋季则表现出显著性递增趋势,夏季为过渡季节;(4)西北太平洋海域的SST存在多种尺度的变化周期:具有显著的2.1—2.3年、2.6—3.0年、3.3—3.8年、4.1—4.3年、4.7—6.0年、6.9—9.0年的显著性变化周期,以及45年以上的长周期震荡。近百余年来,西北太平洋海域的SST并不存在显著的突变现象。

Based on the sea surface temperature (SST) data from Hadley center, the long-term trend, regional difference, seasonal variation, periods and abrupt phenomenon of SST from1870 to 2010 in the Northwest Pacific Ocean are analyzed. Results show that, (1) SST in the Northwest Pacific Ocean has obvious increasing trend over the last hundred years, of about 3.9×10-3 ℃/a. In the 1870—1910 periods, SST showed a slow decreasing trend. SST had encountered the trough during 1910 to 1930 for the past hundred years and the trend curve slopes gently. After 1930, SST has been increasing till now. (2) SST in the most Northwest Pacific Ocean has obvious increasing trend, while the increasing trend in offshore is larger than interior oceans. Increasing trend in offshore is basically above 3×10-3 ℃/a. Increasing trend in Fujian and Guangdong coastal waters, Taiwan surrounding waters, Ryukyu Islands - Japan surrounding waters are the strongest of about 9 × 10-3 ℃/a, and even up to 12×10-3 ℃/a. It only shows decreasing trend in the west part of the Okhotsk Sea, about -15×10-3 — -9 × 10-3℃/a. (3) Long-term trend of SST in the Northwest Pacific Ocean has obvious seasonal differences, increasing trend in autumn and winter is stronger than spring and summer. SST in the Okhotsk shows significant decreasing trend in the winter and spring, and a significant increasing trend in the autumn. (4) SST in the Northwest Pacific Ocean has obvious periods of 2.1—2.3 years, 2.6—3.0 years, 3.3—3.8 years, 4.1—4.3 years, 4.7—6.0 years, 6.9—9.0 years, and long term period of above 45 years. No significant abrupt phenomenon is found for the studied period in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.

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