近40年北极海冰范围变化特征分析-海洋预报

近40年北极海冰范围变化特征分析

单位：北京市5111信箱, 北京100094

分类号：P731.15

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2014·31·第四期（85-91）

摘要：

随着全球变暖,北极海冰正在发生快速变化。文中使用北极地区1972年1月-2012年12月海冰密集度卫星遥感资料,计算了北极海冰范围,讨论了北极海冰范围的各月年变化趋势,并分析了北极海冰范围与北半球温度异常、大气中CO₂浓度的关系。分析结果表明：近40年北极海冰呈显著减少趋势,9月份减少最快；北极海冰的减少滞后于北半球2-4月的异常高温；北极年海冰范围与大气中CO₂浓度为负相关,相关系数r为-0.94,说明大气中CO2浓度的增长影响了包括气温在内的气候变化要素,而导致北极海冰消退。

With global warming, the Arctic sea ice is undergoing rapid change. In this article, the data of sea ice concentration observed by satellite remote sensing between January 1972 and December 2012 was used to calculate the extents of the Arctic sea ice. The monthly variation of ice extents were discussed, and the relationships of sea ice extents and the temperature abnormal in the Northern Hemisphere, the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere were analyzed as well. It's shown that in the last four decades, Arctic sea ice extents decreased significantly, especially in September. The shrink lags behind the temperature abnormal between Februarys and Aprils in the Northern Hemisphere. The extents are in a negative correlation with the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere with a coefficient of -0.94, indicating that the growth of CO₂ concentrations has an impact on climate changing elements including air temperatures, which in turn leads to the faster shrinking of the Arctic sea ice.

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