南海冬季一次海面大风天气的WRF模式预报检验

作者：陈俊文1  蔡扬2  白毅平2  林文实1

单位：1. 中山大学环境科学与工程学院, 广东广州510275; 2. 国家海洋局南海预报中心, 广东广州510310

关键词：海面风场 WRF 边界层参数化方案 模式检验

分类号：P732

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2014·31·第四期（32-40）

摘要：

为寻找出适合南海冬季海面大风天气预报的边界层参数化方案,利用中尺度气象模式WRF中9种边界层方案（YSU、MYJ、QNSE-EDMF、MYNN2、MYNN3、ACM2、BouLac、UW、GBM）,对2012年12月29-31日的大风过程进行预报,并用最终分析资料（FNL）检验10m风场预报。结果表明：风速风向预报的整体平均偏差相当,风向预报的均方根误差较风速大；风速风向与实况的相关随着预报时间增加,整体呈现下降趋势；各方案对海陆交界风速预报普遍偏大2m/s以上,而在远离陆地的海域偏差较小；YSU方案对北部湾、东沙群岛、西沙群岛、南沙群岛4个海区风场的变化趋势均能较好预报；整体而言,南海大部分海域的预报偏差较小,YSU、MYNN2、MYNN3方案对风速预报较好,ACM2方案对风向预报较好。

In order to find out the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterization scheme which suits gale winds forecast in winter in the South China Sea (SCS), nine PBL parameterization schemes (YSU, MYJ, QNSE-EDMF, MYNN2, MYNN3, ACM2, BouLac, UW, GBM) were used in WRF model to simulate gale winds during 29th-31th December 2012. Wind speed and wind direction of 10 m from forecast were tested by comparing with the FNL data. Results indicate that the mean bias error of wind speed and wind direction was overall fairly, while the root mean square error of wind direction was larger than wind speed; the correlation between forecast and observation of wind speed/wind direction was going down as time passed by; predicted wind speed was 2 m/s or more higher than observed wind speed over coastal areas while smaller deviation over the sea far from mainland in all schemes; YSU scheme did well in forecast of wind field variability over the Gulf of Tonkin, Dongsha Islands, Xisha Islands and Nansha Islands; overall, the forecast error over the most parts of SCS was small, YSU, MYNN2 and MYNN3 were better schemes in wind speed forecast while ACM2 scheme was better in wind direction forecast than other scheme.

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