自然气候变率对近百年气候变化的影响研究进展-海洋预报

自然气候变率对近百年气候变化的影响研究进展

单位：国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081

分类号：P467

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2013·30·第三期（78-85）

摘要：

对近年来关于自然气候变率对近百年全球、中国气候以及海洋影响的研究成果进行了详细的总结分析。目前的研究认为，20世纪后50年的气温变化，更可能是人类活动的结果，而20世纪的前50年的气候变化，被认为是自然外力和人类活动共同的影响结果；对于中国20世纪气候增暖的原因，研究认为人类活动可能已经对中国的气候变暖产生了影响，但太阳活动、火山爆发及气候系统内部的低频振动对气候变化可能也具有重要影响。另外研究认为引起全球海洋总热容量增加的重要原因是人类活动的影响。

We summarized the research achievements in recent years about the effect of the nature climate variation on the global and Chinese climate and ocean in a hundred years. Current studies suggested that the air temperature change in the last 50 years of the 20^th century was mainly caused by human activities and it was the combined effects of both nature climate variation and human activity in the first 50 years of the 20^th century. For the reasons of the climate warming in China in the 20^th century, it's suggested that the human activities must have produced effects of the climate warming in China, meanwhile, the solar activity, the volcanic eruption and other low frequency oscillations inside of the climate system may also have important impact. Another study indicated that the important factor of global ocean heat content increasing was the impact of human activities.

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