西北太平洋海域海表风速长期变化趋势研究-海洋预报

西北太平洋海域海表风速长期变化趋势研究

单位：1. 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029;
2. 92538部队气象台, 辽宁大连 116041

分类号：P732

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2012·29·第五期（48-52）

摘要：

利用来自ECMWF的ERA-40海表10 m风场资料,对西北太平洋海域海表风速的长期变化趋势等进行研究,研究发现:(1)1958—2001年期间,西北太平洋第一岛链以内海域的海表风速不存在显著的逐年变化趋势,第一岛链以外地广阔洋面则基本表现出显著性逐年线性递增趋势,递增趋势约0.005—0.02 m·s^-1·a^-1,呈显著性逐年线性递减的海域主要分布于一些零星海域;(2)近44年期间,西北太平洋海域的海表风速整体上以0.0072 m·s^-1·a^-1的速度显著性逐年线性递增,在1958—1974年期间,海表风速的递增趋势较强,1975—2001年期间,西北太平洋海域的海表风速整体上变化趋势较为平缓,尤其是在1976—1983年期间,海表风速的走势甚为平缓;(3)西北太平洋海域的海表风速不存在显著的逐MAM、逐JJA变化趋势,逐SON和逐DJF则表现出显著的线性递增趋势,逐SON的递增趋势为0.0047 m·s^-1·a^-1,逐DJF的递增趋势为0.0079 m·s^-1·a^-1;(4)西北太平洋海域的海表风速存在多种尺度的变化周期,具有明显的2.0—2.4年、4.3—5.2年以及26年以上的长周期震荡。

Based on the ERA-40 sea surface wind field data from the ECMWF, the long-term trend of sea surface wind field in the Northwest Pacific Ocean was analyzed by linear regression method. The results show that: (1) from 1958 to 2001, sea surface wind speed within the first island chain waters of the Northwest Pacific had no significant change, but showed a significant linear increase trend at the outside the first island chain, which is about 0.005—0.02 m·s^-1·a^-1. Meanwhile, the sea surface wind speed had a significant linear decrease trend in some sporadic regions. (2) During the past 44 years, the sea surface wind speed in the Northwest Pacific Ocean showed a significant linear increase by 0.0072 m·s^-1·a^-1. In the period of 1958—1974, the increasing trend is stronger. However, the trend of sea surface wind speed in the Northwest Pacific Ocean was much stable during 1975—2001, especially from 1976 to 1983. (3) The sea surface wind speed in the Northwest Pacific Ocean had no a significant linear increase tendency in MAM and JJA, but had an obvious increase tendency in SON and DJF. (4) The sea surface wind speed showed several different time scale oscillation periods, which are 2.0—2.4 years, 4.3—5.2 years and 26 year respectively.

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