基于海啸浮标数据反演的海啸数值预报方法的初步研究-海洋预报

基于海啸浮标数据反演的海啸数值预报方法的初步研究

单位：国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081

分类号：P731

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2012·29·第五期（1-8）

摘要：

介绍了应用于我国第二代海啸预警系统的基于海啸浮标数据反演的准实时海啸预警方法,并对其做了一些初步的实验和讨论。结果显示对反演结果有较大影响的因素是所选浮标的位置,当浮标与地震源之间的海底地形较平坦时有利于反演,因为平坦的地形可以最大限度的减小非线性作用和底摩擦作用。浮标数据长度及单位源范围的选择对反演结果不会产生很明显的影响,在海啸预警过程中,浮标数据包含海啸波第一波的信息即可,单位源范围尽可能包括所有震源区域即可。

Based on the data inversion of buoy observations, the near real-time tsunami warning method, which has been applied to the second generation of tsunami warning system in the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC), is introduced in this paper. Sensitive studies are also made to identify key factors to the performance of the system. It is shown that the choice of different buoys will largely affect the accuracy of the data inversion. Due to reduced non-linear effect and bottom friction, flat seafloor topography between buoy and earthquake source favors to reach the high data inversion accuracy. In contrast, neither the temporal length of buoy observations nor the range of earthquake unit is sensitive to the inversion accuracy. In the practice of tsunami warning, the system works reasonably well as long as buoy observations capture the first tsunami wave, or earthquake unit covers the earthquake source.

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