福建省风暴潮预警辅助决策系统的业务化应用

作者：朱本璐

单位：福建省海洋预报台, 福建, 福州, 350003

关键词：风暴潮 漫堤 概率圆 集合预报

分类号：论文

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2010·2010·第五期（16-19）

摘要：

介绍了福建省风暴潮预警辅助决策系统的功能和设计原理,以及优势和不足。该系统针对可能出现的多种台风路径和移速引起的风暴潮位进行集合预报,对可能出现漫堤的岸段提供预警。采用数据库预报法,具有节省机时,操作简单,结果可视化等特点。该系统在防抗台风的过程中,将会增强福建沿海对台风和风暴潮灾害的预报预警、分析决策和应急反应能力,为防汛抗台减灾工作提供决策依据。

The function and design principle,as well as the advantage and disadvantage of the Fujian storm surge warning auxiliary decision system are introduced in this paper.This system makes ensemble predictions of tide according to a variety of probable typhoon paths and velocities,and provides warning for the coasts which are probable to have floodplain.Using forecasting means of calling database,it has characters of shorter computation time,convenient operation,visualization result,and so on.This system will enhance the capacity of providing forecast and warning of typhoon and storm surge disaster,analysis and decision-making,and the service to meet the emergence during the process of resisting typhoon.And it is capable of offering decision-making basis for the work of flood prevention,typhoon resist and disaster reduction.

参考文献：

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