表层海水温度场趋势预报的几种方法简介

作者：张建华  殷忠斌

单位：国家海洋局海洋环境预报中心

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出版年·卷·期（页码）：1985·2·第二期（43-49）

摘要：

本文主要介绍了用于表层水温场趋势预报的几种方法:方差分析法、周期分析法和综合时间序列分析法,并用这些预报方法对东海及外缘海域、[Ⅰ,Ⅱ区]进行了水温场趋势预报试验,选出了预报海区表层海水温度场的各种显著周期。本文还给出了1982年的预报结果分析及方差分析法和周期分析法的拟合结果。分析得出预报海区海水温度场存在6～7年的长周期振动和2～3年的短周期振动,为表层海水温度场趋势预报提供了重要依据。

The analysis methods, called variance, periodgram and synthetic time series, used for long-range forecast of sea surface temperature field are primarily introduced in this paper. The experiments for forcasting SST tendency were made by these mothods in the East China Sea and its adjacent waters(Area Ⅰ, Ⅱ), and various prominent periods of SST field were selected for the forecast arae. This paper also gives the analysis result for forecast in 1982 and the similar results obtained by the variance analysis and the period analysis mehtods. It is can be found from the analyses that there are a longer period of 6-7 years and a shorter period of 2-3 years in the forecast areas. This work will provide a reliable basis for knowing well the regulation of variation of SST field in the forecast areas and for Long-range preicting of SST field.

参考文献：

[1] 冯康等, 数值计算方法, 国防工业出版社, 1978, 201-205. [2] 杜碧兰、宋学家, 应用经验正交函数分析预报表层海水温度的力法, 海洋学报3卷1期, 1981, 14-27.

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