海港水位频率的组合计算

作者：高文达

单位：广东省航运规划设计院 广州

关键词：增水 天文潮 频率 组合

分类号：

出版年·卷·期（页码）：1993·10·第一期（59-68）

摘要：

本文提出的海港水位及其频率的组合计算,重点在热带气旋增水与天文潮的组合,将增水从历年实测的热带气旋影响下的水位中分离出来,并分析其频率分布,再同具有确定比率的天文潮位组合,求得组合后水位的频率,并且结合实例说明所求得的结果较目前通常使用的年最高水位抽样组成系列进行计算的结果为佳。

In the east and south coast of chinese continent, usually, high water levels which consist of surge and astronomical tide are caused by tropical cyclones, which occur several times each yearfor a harbour in the coast. This paper studied probability distribution of a harbour’s surges in the coast and shows that it agrees to gumbel distribution, according to that we obtained the probability of surge occurring in each particular height range. Then we calculated astronomical tide heights at every hour in the months with high occurrence of tropical cyclones, the percentage at each particular tide height range was obtained by computing the hours occurring in the range and dividing by the total number of hnurs.Finally, the various combinations of surge and astronomical tide, were computed with their probability and percentage in order to apply to design and plan for harbour engineering.

参考文献：

1. 中华人民共和国交通部港口工程技术规范(1987)上卷,人民交通出版社,1988. 2. 华东师范大学数学系,概率论与数理统计教程,高等软育出版社,1983. 3. 金光炎,水文统计原理与方法(增订第二版),中国工业出版社,1964.

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