概率权重矩法及其在Weibull分布参数估计中的应用

作者：张秀芝

单位：国家气象中心, 北京

关键词：概率权重矩法 Weibll分布参数估计 统计检验

分类号：

出版年·卷·期（页码）：1994·11·第三期（55-61）

摘要：

本文应用Weibull分布各参数的概率权重矩表达式,估计Weibull分布参数,并用该分布推算一百年一遇最大风速值,与目前国内较为流行的极值Ⅰ型和对数正态分布推算值比较接近。通过统计检验对概率权重矩法与最小二乘法和最大似然法进行比较,结果表明,虽然其拟合优度与最小二乘法和最大似然法相当,但计算过程要简单得多。

In this paper, the probability weighted momented (PWM) formulasof the parameters of weibul distribution were used to estimate these parameteres, then application of the ditribution. was made to evaluate themaxmal wind speed rarely appeared among 100 years, Results from theeeyaiuation are very close to those from,Extreme I and log-normal distrbution which are .very popular in our country recetly Statistical tests for the PWM method, the least square and the maxmum likelihood weretaken and show that their fitting ability is almost same, but the calculation process for the PWM method ismuch simpler.

参考文献：

[1] 石厚建二(陆家机译),论气像极值的重现期,海洋译丛,1984. [2] J. ARTHUR GREENWOOD: Probability Weighted Memento,Definition and Relation to Parameters of several Distribution Expkessable in Itlverse Form: WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH:Vol,15, No.5, 1979. [3] 宋德敦等,概率权重矩法及其P-Ⅲ分布中的应用,水利学报,1988(3). [4] 曲延碌,三参数Weibull分布的参数估计,气象学报,1987(3).

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