千里岩的气温变化特征及其与西北太平洋副热带高压的关系

作者：贾瑞丽  郭可彩

单位：国家海洋局青岛海洋预报台, 青岛

关键词：平均气温 变化特征 副热带高压

分类号：

出版年·卷·期（页码）：1997·14·第四期（67-72）

摘要：

本文根据1960～1994年千里岩和青岛月平均气温资料,分析了千里岩与青岛35年来气温的年、季变化特征及差别,发现35年来,千里岩和青岛的年、季平均气温均呈变暖趋势,但千里岩增温幅度较青岛小。从分析中发现,与气温变暖趋势相对应,西北太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)面积、强度指数的年、季变化也呈明显的增强、增大趋势。且年平均气温与冬季副高面积指数相关最显著。最后依此关系建立回归方程,并预测了1996年千里岩年平均气温的变化趋势。

In this paper,the variation features and differences of annual and seasonal mean temperatures over the last 35 years are analysed based on the temperature data(1960～1994)in Qianliyan and Qingdao.It is found that the annual and seasonal mean temperature increased in Qianliyan and Qingdao during these 35 yeasrs.But the increase rate in Qianliyan is smaller than that in Qingdao.It seems that the annual and seasonal intensily index of the subtropical high and corresponding areas increased obviously during the last 35 yeasr.The correlation coefficient of the annual mean temperature with the area index of the subtropical high in winter is largest.At the last,the hindcast for the variation trend of the annual mean temperature in 1996 is given based on a regression equation derived from above correlation.

参考文献：

[1] 赵宗慈,近39年中国的气温变化与城市化影响,气象,Vol.17,No.4,14~16,1991. [2] 阎俊岳等,中国近海气候,科学出版社. [3] 何敏等,夏季500hPa西太平洋副高与海平面气压的关系,气象,Vol.17,No.2,1991. [4] 方修佩等,青岛气温变化趋势及其预测,海洋湖沼通报,No.2,1994.

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