热带海表面温度长期变化与中国降水异常的联系-海洋预报

热带海表面温度长期变化与中国降水异常的联系

单位：江苏省气象台南京

分类号：

出版年·卷·期（页码）：1999·16·第四期（7-25）

摘要：

用奇异谱分析(SSA)提示了1951～1989年期间全球热带海陆面温度旋转空间分布型主要的长期振荡过程及其对北半球500hPa环流和中国降水的影响,结果表明全球热带海陆面温度存在四种显着的旋转空间分布型:ENSO、NAU、TAL、SA型,其活动区域分别在赤道中东太平洋和印度洋,澳大利亚北部洋面、热带大西洋、中国南海附近,重要长期变化分别表现为线性增加、减少,35年左右和6～8年周期振荡,中国降水场的主要响应区域在华北、长江中下游、西北和东北地区、江淮下游地区,它是由热带这四种不同区域热源异常与不同时间尺度的大气环流变化之间的相互作用的结果。同时;由旋转奇异值分解(RSVD)研究了前期冬季太平洋海温和夏季中国降水量主要耦合相关型及其长期变化特征,发现前期冬季赤道中东太平洋大尺度海温异常对后期夏季中国降水影响不显着,中国季风降水与前期冬季澳大利亚北部附近的西南太平洋海温异常的关系更密切。

The principal long-range oscillations of the global tropic sea-land sruface temperature and its in fluences on the rainfall in China and the 500hPa height field in Northern Hemisphere have been in vestigated by using the rotaed principal component analysis (RPCA) and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) based on the data of 39-year period (1951-1989). Results indicate that there are four kinds of the notable rotated spatial patterns, i, e. ENSO. NAU. TALand SA pattern, which the active regions are in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and india ocean. the sea surface on the northern Australia. Northern Atlantic in tropics. southern sea in China respectively. The time evolutions are mainly exhibited by the linear increasing. reduceding. the time scales of 35 years and 6-8years. It is pointed out that the stronger response regions appear in the northern China. the middle-low reaches of Yabgtze. the northwestern and northeastern China. the low reaches of Jinanghuai, which are connnected with the interactions between the four kinds of heating anomalies and the variations of large scale circulations with different time scales. Meantime, the rotated singular value decompostion (RSVD) between the sea surface temperature in the Pacific for the preceding winter and the rainfall in China summer are performed, and the regional charavteristic and the long-range changes of the dominant coupled correlation patterns are investigated, It is found that the effecrs of the large scale SST in the equatorial centre and eastern Pacific for the preceding winier on the rainfall in China for the following summer are not singificacnt, whereas the monsoon rainfalls in China are much more linked to the anomalies of SST in southwestern Pacifiv in the northern Australia during the preceidng winter.

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