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摘要：
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| 可公度性表示自然界事物之间的一种秩序。利用可公度性的原理和方法,对厄尔尼诺事件的长期变化过程进行了预报分析,其结果是比较好的,这对防灾减灾具有重要的实际意义。 |
| Commensurability indicates an order of the natural phenomena. The long-term change process of the EL Nino event is forecasted and analyzed by means of the principle and method of commensurability. The result seems good, which is of the actual significance for the disaster prevention and disaster reduction. |
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参考文献：
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[1] 廉丽妹,李志富.厄尔尼诺及其影响.大自然探索,1998,17(4):64～65.
[2] 翁文波.预测论基础.北京:石油工业出版社,1984.47～51.
[3] 翁文波,吕牛顿,张清.预测学.北京:石油工业出版社,1996.20～24. |
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