摘要:
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根据对赤道太平洋22年次表层温度、流场及其诊断量的EOF分析,提取出三个对ElNino有预测意义的物理量,它们分别是赤道太平洋温度距平EOF第二个特征量的时间系数、赤道太平洋纬向流距平EOF第二个特征量的时间系数和赤道太平洋温度垂直差分距平EOF第一个特征量的时间系数,其中超前于ElNino的时间分别为1年、8个月和4个月,用该三个量,建立Nino3区海温距平回归预测方程,根据目前我们可以得到的截止到2001年12月的资料,对直到2002年4月、8月和12月的Nino3区海温距平进行预测,根据计算结果和分析得出我们的预测结论:2002年4~5月前后将有一次中等强度的ElNino过程。 |
We obtained the three components, which are significant of forecasting El Nino from the EOF analysis subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature, currents and their diagnosis for 22 years. They are the second eigenvalue vectors of temperature and current anomalous EOF ana1ysis and the first eigenvalue vector of temperature difference in depth EOF analysis. We made three regression prediction equations to forecast EI Nino in advance 4, 8, 12 months. According to the recent data we forecast that there is a middle El Nino in 2002, April-May. |
参考文献:
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