利用太平洋海表温度作西北太平洋热带气旋年频数预测

作者：张文舟1 2  陈美娜1  赵惠芳3

单位：1. 厦门海洋预报台, 福建, 厦门, 361002; 2. 厦门大学, 福建, 厦门, 361002; 3. 晋江市气象局, 福建, 晋江, 362200

关键词：太平洋海表温度 热带气旋 频数 预测

分类号：P731

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2003·2003·第三期（18-24）

摘要：

本文利用1950～2000年全球月平均海表温度,计算分析海表温度与西北太平洋热带气旋频数之间的相关性,确定太平洋海表温度与西北太平洋热带气旋相关性好的海域作为预测模式的相关海区。从相关海区中选取代表格点海表温度资料构造出综合预测因子。利用综合预测因子建立一无线性和一元多项式非线性预测模式。经检验,两种模式预测效果较为理想。因此,利用太平洋海表温度与西北太平洋热带气旋频数的相关性建立预测模式作西北太平洋热带气旋频数预测是可行的。同时发现,经过以上方法建立的线性模式和非线性模式预测结果相差甚微,表明西北太平洋热带气旋频数与前一年太平洋某些海区海表温度经以上方法得到的综合预测因子之间线性相关性较为明显。

In this paper, we have calculated and analyzed the correlation coefficient between the sea-surface temperature(SST)and the frequency of tropical cyclone on the Northwest Pacific by using the global SST from 1951 to 2000, and have determined some sea areas where the correlation between the SST and the frequency of tropical cyclone on the Northwest Pacific is good. From these areas, the SST data on some representative points have been selected to form a aggregative forecasting factor. Using the factor, we have formed a simple linear model and a one-variable polynomial nonlinear model. The tests of the two models show that they are both fairly effective. At the same time, we find that the forecasted results of the two models are almost the same, which shows that the linear correlation between the frequency of tropical cyclone on the Northwest Pacific and the aggregative forecasting factor made of the SST of the Pacific is more obvious.

参考文献：

[1] 许金镜.西太平洋赤道附近海温与中国东南沿海台风关系的初步分析[J].台湾海峡,1998,17(3):278～281. [2] 杨桂山,施雅风.西北太平洋热带气旋频数的变化及与海表温度的相关研究[J].地理学报,1999,54(1):22～29. [3] 谢定升,张晓晖,梁风仪.热带气旋的年月频数预测[J].海洋预报,2000,17(4):60～68. [4] 江滢,翟盘茂.四套不同的全球海面温度资料集的对比分析[M].北京:气象出版社,2000,12～17.

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