三个登陆浙江热带气旋数值试验及暴雨过程的湿位涡分析-海洋预报

三个登陆浙江热带气旋数值试验及暴雨过程的湿位涡分析

单位：1. 浙江省气象局浙江杭州 310002;
2. 绍兴市气象局浙江绍兴 312000

分类号：P731

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2006·2006·第三期（42-50）

摘要：

首先利用非静力平衡中尺度数值模式MM5(V3)对2004年3个登陆浙江热带气旋的登陆过程进行了数值模拟试验,通过对路径、降水的对比验证表明,MM5模式对热带气旋的模拟是比较成功的。然后在模拟效果较好的基础上,利用高分辨的模拟结果,对台风暴雨过程的湿位涡进行了诊断分析,结果表明:3场台风暴雨的形成机制有显著差异,Rananim强降水是由其本身环流造成的,至于Mindulle和Haima的降水冷空气的侵入起到了重要作用。暴雨都发生在陡立密集区附近,对流层低层湿位涡负值中心与暴雨落区存在较好的对应关系,而其中心数值绝对值随时间的变化量与1h降水存在正相关关系,说明湿位涡负值中心可以作为降水时空分布的重要指标,为台风暴雨预报提供一种思路。

Numerical experiments were conducted on three landfall tropical cyclones(TCs) by use of PSU/NCAR nonhydrostatic mesoscale model(MM5).Verified against observations,the tracks and detailed mesoscale precipitation distributions were well reproduced.Using simulated information,the moist potential vorticity(MPV) was analyzed.The results show that there was marked distinction in the heavy rain cause of three TCs.The strong precipitation of Rananim was affected by typhoon itself and as to the others,the spreading into of cold air played an important role.The rainstorm occured in the stiff and dense section of moist isentropes,the corresponding relation between the negative center of MPV and heavy rain area was better,and the absolute value variation of MPV had positive correlation to the intensitiy of one hour precipitation,It provided more valuable information for short range weather forecasting,the typhoon torrential rain especially.

参考文献：

[1] 吴国雄,蔡雅萍,唐晓菁.湿位涡和倾斜涡度发展[J].气象学报,1995,53(4):387～404.

[2] 吴国雄,蔡雅萍.风垂直切变和下滑倾斜涡度发展[J].大气科学,1997,21(3):273～281.

[3] 寿绍文,李耀辉,范可.暴雨中尺度气旋发展的等熵面位涡分析[J].气象学报,2001,59(5):560～568.

[4] 李耀辉,寿绍文.一次江淮暴雨的MPV及对称不稳定研究[J].气象科学,2000,20(2):171～178.

[5] 赵宇,吴增茂,刘诗军,等.由变性台风环流引发的山东特大暴雨天气的位涡场分析[J].热带气象学报,2005,21(1):33～43.

[6] 刘英金.中国气象事业发展战略研究辅导读本.北京:气象出版社,2005,20.

服务与反馈：

【文章下载】【发表评论】【查看评论】【加入收藏】