WRF与MM5对2007年3月初强冷空气数值预报结果的对比分析-海洋预报

WRF与MM5对2007年3月初强冷空气数值预报结果的对比分析

单位：国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京, 100081

分类号：P731

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2007·2007·第二期（1-8）

摘要：

本文应用MM5模式和WRF模式,对2007年3月3～4日发生在中国渤黄海海域的强冷空气和黄海气旋发生过程的数值预报结果进行了比较分析。该过程产生的大风引发了我国渤黄海沿岸部分地区38年不遇的特大温带风暴潮。分析结果表明,WRF模式和MM5模式都成功地预报了这次强冷空气和黄海气旋共同作用产生的大风过程,与MM5模式对比,WRF模式更好地预报了引起这次大风过程的主要天气系统的位置和移动路径。

There were a strong cold air and a cyclone through the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea of China on March 3,2007 to March 4,2007.We forecasted this process that caused the strongest storm surge in some areas around the two seas of China during last 38 years with the fifth-generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model(MM5)and the Weather Research and Forecast model(WRF),that are running at National Marine Environment Forecasting Center.We compared and analyzed the results.Our analysis result indicated the MM5 and the WRF all worked well in this process.But the WRF is better than the MM5 in predicting the position and movement of main weather system.

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