GRAPES模式对“0703”强风暴潮的数值模拟分析

作者：闫丽凤1  杨志利2  孙兴池2

单位：1. 山东省烟台市气象局 烟台 264003; 2. 山东省气象局 济南 250031

关键词：GRAPES模式 温带气旋 大风 风暴潮 数值模拟

分类号：P731

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2008·25·第四期（31-38）

摘要：

本文对2007年3月4～5日凌晨发生在渤海及山东北部沿岸的一次强风暴潮过程成因进行了分析和探讨,并利用我国新一代数值预报模式GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System)对该过程进行了气压场和风场数值模拟。结果表明:由温带气旋产生的强而持久的向岸大风是引发此次强风暴潮发生的主要强迫动力;风应力增水作用与天文大潮相叠加直接导致风暴潮的发生;GRAPES模式较好的模拟出了本次风暴潮过程的气压场和风场特征。其中,气压场中,较好的模拟出了温带气旋的发生发展、移动路径、强度变化等特征;风场中,较好的模拟出了风增大和减弱的趋势以及造成风暴增水的向岸大风的风场分布特征等。

Causes of a severe storm tide process occurred on 4 to wee hours of 5 March 2007 in Bohai Sea and northern coast of Shandong are analyzed and discussed in this article, and our country’s new generation numerical forecast model GRAPES is used to simulate both pressure field and wind field for this process. The results show:severe and long lasting gale towards land which produced by temperate zone cyclone is the main force motivity to cause this severe storm tide;both the effect of wind stress increasing water and astronomy tide’s superposing directly cause the storm tide happening;the GRAPES model preferably simulate the pressure field and wind field of this storm tide process. Hereinto, characteristics of temperate zone cyclone’s being and development, moving path, strength varieties etc are simulated preferably in pressure field;the trend of wind’s strengthening and weakening,and distributed characteristics of gale towards land which can cause water increase, etc,are also simulated preferably in wind field.

参考文献：

[1] 冯士筰.风暴潮导论[M].北京:科学出版社,1982. [2] 游景炎.渤海湾风暴潮的时空分布[J].河北气象,1995,14(4):1～6. [3] 王建国,等.山东气候[M].北京:气象出版社2005. [4] 周淑玲,闫丽凤.影响山东半岛风暴潮的分析和预报[J].气象科技,2002,30(1):37～42. [5] 伍红雨,陈德辉.应用GRAPES模式对贵州暴雨过程的模拟试验[J].气象,2006,32(12):29～35.

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