摘要:
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利用小平岛观测站1993~2002年10年雾季(4~7月)的气象资料,分析了小平岛海区雾季雾的气候统计特征;采用0-1时间序列周期分析的方法,对雾的持续时间进行了讨论;利用双向差分模式建模,并进行外延,预报未来出雾的日期,结果较为理想。作为该海区雾的短期预报试验,结果令人鼓舞。 |
Ten-year (1993~2002) meteorological data of Xiaoping island observing station during fog season (Apr. -Jul.) have been used to analyse the statistic characteristic of fogs in Xiaoping island sea area during fog season. We also used method of 0-1 time series periodic analysis to discuss fogs’duration. Two-way difference model was set up to forcast fogs in future, and the result is not bad. As the short-range forcast test of fogs in that area, the result is exciting. |
参考文献:
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[1] 中国近海水文气象资料[M].中国人民解放军海军司令部航海保证部.1989. [2] 胡基福.统计分析与预报[M].青岛海洋大学出版社,1998. [3] 黄磊,等.青岛市大气污染时间序列分析预报方法研究[J].青岛海洋学报,2001,31(1):14~20. |
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