基于北部湾水文观测资料的模式产品温盐数据评估-海洋预报

基于北部湾水文观测资料的模式产品温盐数据评估

单位：1. 广东海洋大学海洋与气象学院, 广东湛江 524088;
2. 中国地质大学(北京)海洋学院北京 100083

分类号：P731.1

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2026·43·第四期（24-42）

摘要：

基于2023年夏季和冬季北部湾海域的温盐观测数据，系统评估全球海洋物理再分析数据集（GLORYS）、全球海洋物理分析与预报数据集（Glo-anfc）、全球海洋集合物理再分析数据集（ENS）等5套哥白尼海洋环境监测服务（CMEMS）提供的数据产品、以及全球大洋环流数据同化模式系统数据产品（ECCO2）和中国科学院大气物理研究所预报产品（LFS）共7套模式产品在浅水海湾的温盐模拟性能。研究结果表明：7套模式均能有效模拟冬夏两季北部湾不同深度层的温盐分布趋势，但存在显著的系统性偏差：北部湾北部温度低估、盐度高估，南部则表现为温度高估、盐度低估；季节对比显示，7套模式在夏季的模拟表现显著优于冬季，其中GLORYS和GLO-anfc两套模式数据在夏季各深度层的结构相似性指数（SSIM）均大于0.5，冬季SSIM值也稳定维持在0.5左右，表明这两套模式在空间结构的模拟效果上表现较为突出，而ENS的3套数据与ECCO2模式数据在冬季与盐度观测数据的相关性较差，部分深度层相关系数甚至为负值，说明其在北部湾的适用性有待提升。

This study systematically evaluates the temperature and salinity simulation performance of seven model products, including five CMEMS(The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service) data products: GLORYS, Glo-anfc, ENS, and two others, as well as ECCO2 and LFS, in shallow bays based on the temperature and salinity observation data in the Beibu Gulf in summer and winter 2023. The results show that: All seven products can effectively simulate the distribution trends of temperature and salinity in different depth layers of the Beibu Gulf in winter and summer, but there are significant systematic deviations: the temperature is underestimated and the salinity is overestimated in the northern Beibu Gulf, while the temperature is overestimated and the salinity is underestimated in the southern Beibu Gulf; Seasonal comparison shows that the performance of the seven products in summer is significantly better than that in winter. Among them, the Structural Similarity Index(SSIM) values of the GLORYS and GLO-anfc data in each depth layer of the Beibu Gulf in summer are all greater than 0.5, and the SSIM values in winter are also stably maintained at about 0.5, indicating that these two products perform more prominently in the simulation of spatial structure. However, the salinity correlation between the three ENS,ECCO2 data and the observation data in winter are poor, and the correlation coefficients in some depth layers are even negative, indicating that their applicability in the Beibu Gulf needs to be improved.

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