渤海一次海上强风过程的成因及预报服务难点分析-海洋预报

渤海一次海上强风过程的成因及预报服务难点分析

单位：1. 沧州市气象局, 河北沧州 061001;
2. 温州市气象局, 浙江温州 325000;
3. 民航华北空管局气象中心, 北京 100641;
4. 中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心, 北京 100081;
5. 哈尔滨市气象局, 黑龙江哈尔滨 150000

关键词：渤海大气环流数值预报港口气象服务

分类号：P732.4

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第五期（63-72）

摘要：

利用常规站点观测资料、ERA5逐小时再分析资料、天气雷达拼图组网组合反射率产品和中国气象局中尺度天气数值预报系统（CMA-MESO）预报产品对2024年6月13—14日渤海一次海上强风天气过程成因进行分析，并讨论预报服务难点。结果表明：源于贝加尔湖附近的500 hPa高空冷涡在本次过程前2～3天开始发展并缓慢东移，于13日移入东北地区，冷涡后部冷空气南下，配合低层切变系统和暖湿背景，于13日午后触发中尺度对流系统，对流系统在19—20时移至渤海海域，导致了局地10～12级强风过程。以黄骅港保税区站（B2776）为例，低层风速辐合形成强上升运动，上冷下暖湿层结有利于触发不稳定能量释放，K指数较大，其主要贡献项为垂直温度递减率；此外，中层水汽饱和程度的时间变化与K指数变化有很好的对应关系，较好的热力和动力条件是本次雷暴大风发生发展的基础。CMA-MESO能提前2～3天指示本次渤海海域的强风过程，为做好港口海洋气象预报服务提供了重要参考，但在大风极值的预报中仍存在一定局限性。

Using observational data from automatic weather stations, the ERA5 hourly reanalysis data, radar composite reflectivity mosaic data, and the China Meteorological Administration Regional High-Resolution Mesoscale Model（CMA-MESO） forecasting products, the causes of a severe thunderstorm gale event over the Bohai Sea during 13—14 June, 2024 are analyzed, and the difficulties in forecasting service are discussed.The results show that an upper troposphere cold vortex at 500 hPa originated near Lake Baikal began to develop and slowly moved eastward 2 to 3 days before this event, entered the northeastern China on 13 June.The cold air at the cold vortex rear moved southward along with a lower troposphere shear system with warm and humid conditions, a mesoscale convection system was triggered in the afternoon of 13 June, moved to the Bohai Sea at 19 to 20 BJT resulting in a local maximum wind force of 10～12 levels. At Huanghua Port Bonded Logistics Zone（B2776）, the wind convergence in the lower troposphere supported a strong upward motion, and the unstable upper cold-lower warm stratification was conducive to triggering the release of unstable energy, which in turn stimulated the development of the squall line and thunderstorm winds. The vertical temperature gradient decided the relative large K-index of this event, which had a good correspondence with the evolution of humidity in the lower troposphere at 700 hPa. The conducive thermal and dynamic conditions serve as the foundation of this thunderstorm. Despite some limitations existing in the extreme wind peak value forecasts, the CMA-MESO provided an early forecast of the strong wind event over the Bohai Sea 2 to 3 days in advance, which is useful for port meteorological services.

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