典型台风路径北部湾海浪特征及增水研究-海洋预报

典型台风路径北部湾海浪特征及增水研究

单位：1. 重庆交通大学河海学院, 重庆 400074;
2. 中交水运规划设计院有限公司, 北京 100007

分类号：P731.22

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第五期（22-32）

摘要：

旨在研究北部湾海域3种典型台风路径下的海浪特征及增水情况，明确典型路径台风对钦州湾的影响。采用MIKE21系列水动力和波浪模型，结合Jelesniansk台风风场模型及欧洲中尺度天气预报中心（ECMWF）的背景风场，对3种典型路径台风侵入北部湾海域引发的台风浪及其增水进行数值模拟。结果表明：北部湾海域台风波浪要素的分布特点为台风浪主要集中在台风路径的右前象限，台风浪场右半圆大于左半圆，台风主波方向呈辐射状向前传播，台风正后方的主波方向不一致。海南岛对台风浪的发展有显著影响：经过海南岛的台风强度会下降，海南岛能够阻拦涌浪入侵北部湾。西北移及转向路径台风在钦州湾入海口分别掀起2.16 m、1.61 m的风暴增水，对湾内通航条件威胁较大；台风路径越靠近钦州湾，对湾内通航条件的影响越显著。

This paper aims to investigate the characteristics of waves and storm surges in the Beibu Gulf under three typical typhoon tracks, and to clarify the impact of typhoons on Qinzhou Bay along typical tracks. The MIKE21 series of hydrodynamic and wave models are employed, in conjunction with the Jelesniansk typhoon wind field model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts（ECMWF） background wind field, to conduct numerical simulations of typhoon waves and storm surges induced by typhoons entering the Beibu Gulf along three typical tracks. The results show that the distribution characteristics of typhoon wave elements in the Beibu Gulf are that typhoon waves are primarily concentrated in the right front quadrant of the typhoon track, with the right half of the typhoon wave field being greater than the left half, and the main wave direction radiates forward, with inconsistent main wave directions directly behind the typhoon. Hainan Island has a significant impact on the development of typhoon waves. Typhoons passing over Hainan Island experience a decrease in intensity, and Hainan Island can block the invasion of swell waves into the Beibu Gulf. The typhoon,with a northwestward and turning path, causes storm surges of 2.16 m and 1.61 m at the estuary of Qinzhou Bay,posing a significant threat to navigation conditions within the bay. The closer the typhoon’s path is to Qinzhou Bay, the greater the impact on navigation conditions within the bay.

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