台风“三巴”(2316)路径和降水预报偏差分析 |
作者:石娟1 2 吴俞1 2 吴敏1 2 |
单位:1. 海南省气象台, 海南 海口 570203; 2. 海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室, 海南 海口 570203 |
关键词:台风“三巴” 副热带高压 风雨特征 预报偏差 |
分类号:P458.1+24 |
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出版年·卷·期(页码):2025··第三期(66-75) |
摘要:
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利用地面自动站降水资料、0.25°×0.25°经纬度分辨率的ERA5再分析资料、卫星资料、上海台风所最佳路径集和EC全球模式细网格预报数据,对2316号台风“三巴”的移动路径和海南暴雨的预报偏差及其原因进行分析。通过分析发现,EC预报的台风路径比实况略偏西偏北,移速偏快,南折时间点偏晚,主要原因是EC预报的副热带高压强度偏强,冷空气影响海南的强度偏弱。海南省气象台主观预报的暴雨量级评分比EC模式预报高0.33,但两者均漏报18日08时—19日08时海南岛东北沿海地区的暴雨,分析EC模式偏差原因得知,EC预报场的水汽通量散度辐合中心与实况偏差较大,位置偏东,强降水落区位于海南岛东部海面。低层(925 hPa)长时间维持东南急流,整层湿度条件较好,较强的垂直上升运动导致海南岛东北部沿海出现暴雨。 |
This paper analyzes the forecast biases of Typhoon "Samba"(2316) by using precipitation data from ground-based automatic stations, ERA5 reanalysis data, satellite data, Shanghai Typhoon Office Best Track Set,and ECMWF model forecasting data. The analysis reveals that the EC predicted typhoon path locates more west and north than the actual situation, with a faster moving speed and a later southward reverse date, which is mainly due to the stronger subtropical high pressure and the weaker cold air affecting Hainan. The subjective forecasting of Hainan Meteorological Station scores higher than the ECMWF forecasting for heavy rainfall by 0.33, but both of them omit to forecast heavy rainfall along the northeast coast of Hainan Island from 0800 on the 18th to 0800on the 19th. The analysis of the forecasting bias suggests that the water vapor flux dispersion convergence center of the ECMWF data has a large deviation from the real situation, leading to an east bias in the center location and strong precipitation fallout in the eastern sea of Hainan Island. The low-level 925 hPa maintains the southeasterly jet for a long period, with better humidity conditions in the whole layer, and the stronger vertical upward motion leads to the heavy rainfall along the northeastern coast of Hainan Island. |
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