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摘要：
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| 为了更好地为北上台风提供准确预报和保障，针对2022年第12号台风“梅花”，采用客观预报法对中国、日本和美国主观预报产品的路径、强度以及多模式数值降水预报误差进行检验评估。结果表明：台风“梅花”进入辽宁地区第四次登陆我国，刷新了辽宁地区多项历史记录，造成了辽宁地区长时间、大范围的风雨影响。在短预报时效内，中国对台风“梅花”的路径预报误差最小；随着预报时效的增加，日本的预报表现优于中国和美国，且其在北上阶段各预报时效内的路径误差大于台风生命史；日本对台风强度的预报准确率最高，预报效果最稳定，中国和美国的强度预报较实况偏强；ECMWF和NCEP数值模式对于强降水的预报形状与实况最相似，但其降水预报强度偏小，CMA_MESO_3KM模式预报的中位数强度与实况最接近，在各预报时效下的TS评分表现较好。在实际业务工作中应关注台风和周围天气系统的相互作用情况，参考多家预报中心对台风路径、强度和降水预报进行综合分析和主观订正，有助于台风预报准确度的提升。 |
| In order to provide accurate forecasts for northward moving typhoons, this study evaluates the subjective track and intensity forecasting products of Typhoon "Muifa" in 2022 from forecasting centers of China, Japan, and the United States, as well as the precipitation forecasting errors from multiply numerical models based on objective forecasting method. Typhoon "Muifa" landed in China for the fourth time in the Liaoning region, creating several historical records and long-lasting large-scale wind and rain in the Liaoning region. In short forecast lead time, the forecast error of the Typhoon "Muifa" track from BABJ is the smallest. Along with the prolong of forecast time, the forecast track from RJTD is better than that from BABJ and PGTW, and the forecast track error in each forecast time during the northward moving stage is higher than that during the rest phase of the typhoon life. RJTD has the highest accuracy and most stable performance on the typhoon intensity forecast, while both BABJ and PGTW forecast stronger intensity than the observations. The ECMWF and NCEP numerical models forecast the most similar pattern to the observations in terms of heavy precipitation distribution, but their intensity forecast is relatively small. The CMA_MESO_3KM model performs best on the median intensity forecast with high TS score in each forecast time. In practical application to improve the accuracy of typhoon forecast, it is necessary to make comprehensive analysis and subjective correction on typhoon track, intensity and precipitation forecasts through referring to multiply data sources on the basis of considering the interaction between typhoon and surrounding weather systems. |
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