基于多算法分级权重集成的渤海西岸降水预报技术研究-海洋预报

基于多算法分级权重集成的渤海西岸降水预报技术研究

单位：1. 天津市海洋气象重点实验室, 天津 300074;
2. 天津市滨海新区气象局, 天津 300450;
3. 天津市气象台, 天津 300074;
4. 国家海洋信息中心, 天津 300171

分类号：P457.6

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2024·41·第三期（71-79）

摘要：

以渤海西岸为研究区域，基于2019—2021年6—9月实况降水资料和模式预报数据，研发了一种新的降水集成预报技术，采用分级权重分配将 3种客观订正预报算法和 6种集合统计量算法进行集成，得到多算法分级权重集成预报（Hierarchical-weight Consensus Forecasting，HCF），然后以 2021年 9月渤海西岸一次典型强降水过程为例进行了检验评估。结果表明：HCF预报（08时—次日08时）的所有降水量级的TS评分均高于欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）的模式预报；相较于ECMWF模式预报和其他客观预报，HCF在降水量级和落区预报方面均表现良好，08时—次日08 时的大雨及以上量级的 TS 评分最高，其他降水量级检验评估指标也均在前三位；在个例检验中，HCF 预报较 ECMWF 模式的所有降水量级的检验指标均更优秀，其中小雨预报的 TS 评分较ECMWF模式提升41.76%，大雨预报评分提升54.42%。

Taking the precipitation forecasts in the west coast of the Bohai Sea (34°～43°N, 111°～121°E) as the research scope, based on the observations of meteorological stations and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global forecasting product during June-September in 2019—2021, a Hierarchicalweight Consensus Forecasting (HCF) method is proposed by combining three objective - correction forecasting algorithms and six ensemble statistical forecasting algorithms according to different weights. The HCF method is validated through the forecasts of a typical heavy rainy process in September 2021. The results are as follows: the TS scores of the HCF method are higher than those of the ECMWF forecasts on precipitation of 08:00～08:00 the next day in all precipitation levels. Compared with other precipitation forecasting products, the HCF method performs well on precipitation intensity and fall area, with the highest TS score in heavy rain and above on precipitation of 08:00～08:00 the next day and top-three TS score for other precipitation levels. In the case test, the HCF method performs better than the ECMWF forecasts in all precipitation levels, with an increase of 41.76% on the TS score of light rain and an increase of 54.42% on the TS score of heavy rain.

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