两个相似路径台风途经鲁西南时降水差异的成因分析-海洋预报

两个相似路径台风途经鲁西南时降水差异的成因分析

单位：1. 山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室, 山东济南 250031;
2. 山东省济宁市气象局, 山东济宁 272000;
3. 山东省气象台, 山东济南 250031

分类号：P444

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2022·39·第二期（40-49）

摘要：

基于常规观测资料和FNL再分析资料，对比分析了两个相似路径台风“摩羯”（1814）和台风“温比亚”（1818）在途经鲁西南地区时降水分布差异的成因。结果表明：环流形势的差异是导致两个台风降水分布差异的主要原因，500 hPa上台风“摩羯”处于均压场中，降水以台风本体降水为主，位于台风顶部，而台风“温比亚”并入高空槽中，降水以锋面降水为主，位于台风移向的右前侧。两个台风的水汽源地不同，水汽辐合的位置也存在差异，500 hPa正涡度平流和925 hPa切变线位置对降水落区具有较好的指示作用。台风“摩羯”的正压暖心结构和稍弱的环境垂直风切变比具有斜压锋生结构和较强环境垂直风切变的台风“温比亚”更有利于在台风附近形成降水。对两个台风进行中尺度诊断分析发现，非地转湿Q矢量和垂直螺旋度可以很好地诊断降水落区；湿位涡显示，湿正压项<0仅是降水发生的必要条件，并不能决定降水发生的位置，湿斜压项更能体现降水发生的位置和强度。

Based on the conventional observation data and FNL reanalysis data, the causes of the precipitation difference between typhoon "Yagi" (1814) and "Rumbia" (1818) passing through southwest of Shandong Province with similar tracks are analyzed in this paper. The results show that the difference in circulation pattern is the main reason for the precipitation difference between the two typhoons. Typhoon "Yagi" is in the equal pressure field on 500 hPa, and the precipitation is mainly from the typhoon itself, which is located at the top of the typhoon. Typhoon "Rumbia" is merged into the upper trough, and the precipitation is mainly frontal precipitation, which is located on the right-front side of the typhoon direction. Moreover, the water vapor sources as well as the locations of vapor convergence of the two typhoons are different. The locations of positive vorticity advection on 500 hPa and the wind shear on 925 hPa have a good indication of the rainfall area, and the barotropic structure with warm center and weaker environmental vertical wind shear of typhoon "Yagi" is more favorable for the formation of precipitation nearby compared to typhoon "Rumbia" with stronger environmental vertical wind shear and baroclinic structure induced by front. The mesoscale diagnosis analysis of the two typhoons shows that the non-geostrophic wet Q-vector and the vertical helicity can be used to diagnose the rainfall area. In addition, the moist potential vortex shows that the wet barotropic term less than 0 is only a necessary condition for the occurrence of precipitation and not a factor determining the location of rainfall, while the wet baroclinic term is a better indicator for the location and intensity of rainfall.

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