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2018年8月西北太平洋热带气旋频数异常的成因分析
作者:张润宇1  凌铁军1 2  李响1 2  张蕴斐1 2  邓小花1  黄焕卿1 
单位:1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室, 北京 100081
关键词:热带气旋 频数 600 hPa相对湿度 850 hPa相对涡度 副热带高压 季风槽 
分类号:P444
出版年·卷·期(页码):2020·37·第二期(1-10)
摘要:
基于中国气象局“CMA-STI热带气旋最佳路径数据集”、欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA_Interim逐月再分析资料,利用1979—2018年热带气旋生成指数中与西北太平洋海域(包括南海海域) 8月TC生成频数相关性较好因子,定量分析了2018年8月环境场因子异常的情况与可能原因,并讨论其影响该月台风数量异常偏多的物理机制。结果表明: 850 hPa相对涡度和600 hPa相对湿度与西北太平洋海域8月TC生成频数的相关关系最好。2018年8月,相关较高区域的850 hPa相对涡度与多年平均值最大正距平达0.25×10-4/s,600 hPa相对湿度高于多年平均值8%~10%。2018年8月,西北太平洋副热带高压(副高)位置偏西偏北、北印度洋至我国南海大范围海域西风正异常、南海海域经向风正异常、水汽通量正异常,以及季风槽的位置决定了850 hPa相对涡度因子和600 hPa相对湿度因子正异常的出现,触发对流活动的增强,并通过风驱动海面热量交换机制为TC中潜热释放提供所需的能量供应,最终导致TC生成频数偏多。
Based on the "CMA-STI best path data sets of tropical cyclone" and ERA_Interim monthly reanalysis data, this paper quantitatively analyzes the abnormal condition in the environment field and its potential causing factors, and discusses the physical mechanism for the abnormally high typhoon numbers in August 2018 using the factors with good correlation between the tropical cyclone generation index from 1979 to 2018 and the TC generation frequency in August in the northwest Pacific Ocean including the South China Sea region. The results show that 850 hPa relative vorticity and 600 hPa relative humidity in August reveal the best correlation with the TC generation frequency in the northwest Pacific Ocean. In August 2018, the maximum positive anomaly between the 850 hPa relative vorticity in the region with good correlation and multi-year mean is 0.25×10-4/s, while the 600 hPa relative humidity is 8%~10% higher than the multi-year mean. In August 2018, the position of the northwest Pacific subtropical high is abnormally to the northwest. The area from the north Indian Ocean to the South China Sea is dominated by westerly anomaly. Moreover, the meridional wind is abnormal and the water vapor flux shows positive anomaly in the South China Sea area Those anomalies along with the position of the monsoon trough determines the positive anomaly of 850 hPa relative vorticity and 600 hPa relative humidity and triggers the enhancement of convection activity, which provides necessary energy supply through Wind Induced Surface Heat Exchange mechanism and results in the abnormal high TC frequency.
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