黄骅市沿海风暴潮灾害风险评估区划研究-海洋预报

黄骅市沿海风暴潮灾害风险评估区划研究

单位：1. 河北省水文工程地质勘查院, 河北石家庄 050021;
2. 河北省地矿局第四水文工程地质大队, 河北沧州 061000;
3. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081

分类号：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2022·39·第四期（9-15）

摘要：

以黄骅市沿海地区为研究对象，采用ADCIRC模型建立台风和温带风暴潮漫滩数值模型，评估不同工况条件下风暴潮灾害的危险性，同时结合承灾体脆弱性分析，开展风暴潮灾害风险评估和区划研究。结果表明：在965 hPa和955 hPa级别的台风风暴潮以及风速32 m/s和36 m/s的温带风暴潮影响下，沿海乡镇均有不同程度受损，温带风暴潮危险性大于台风风暴潮。黄骅市高风险区主要分布于南排河镇、新村回族乡和黄骅港等地。风险最高的工况为温带风暴潮（十二级36 m/s）溃堤，该工况下风暴潮风险区面积为1 184.54 km²，其中黄骅港和新村回族乡Ⅰ级风险区面积最大，其次为南排河镇、吕桥镇、羊三木回族乡、中捷友谊农场和南大港农场，其他乡镇风险较低。

Taking the coastal area of Huanghua City as the research object, the ADCIRC model is used to establish a typhoon and extratropical storm surge inundation numerical model, and to evaluate the risk of storm surge disaster under different working conditions. Combined with the vulnerability analysis of disaster-bearing body, the risk assessment and zoning research of storm surge disaster is carried out in this paper. The risk assessment results show that under the influence of typhoon storm surge with the level of 965 hPa and 955 hPa and extratropical storm surges with wind speeds of 32 m/s and 36 m/s, coastal towns are damaged to varying degrees, and the risk of extratropical storm surges is greater than that of typhoon storm surges. The high-risk areas in Huanghua City are mainly distributed in Nanpaihe Town, Xincun Hui Ethnic Township, and Huanghua Port. The working condition with the highest risk is the dyke break caused by estratropical storm surge with the level of 12 m/s and 36 m/s. Under that condition, the storm risk area is 1 184.54 km2, of which Huanghua Port and Xincun Hui Ethnic Township have the largest risk area of level I, followed by Nanpaihe Town, Luqiao Town, Yangsanmu Hui Township, Zhongjie Friendship Farm, Nandagang Farm, while the other townships have lower risk.

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