复合极值分布在台风风暴潮增水重现期计算中的应用研究-海洋预报

复合极值分布在台风风暴潮增水重现期计算中的应用研究

单位：国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081

分类号：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2022·39·第四期（1-8）

摘要：

考虑小样本或无规律极值样本的情况下，引入描述随机事件发生次数的离散型分布，以三沙站为例，研究了Poisson-Gumbel复合极值分布在台风风暴潮重现期计算中的应用效果。结果表明：复合极值分布计算结果对样本数据较为敏感，标准差小的样本数据其复合分布的低频值显著偏低；对具有一定离散度的短时间序列数据，复合分布的计算结果稳定，且对低频值的估算也更准；对于较长时间序列的数据，阈值取值偏低则高频次发生值更准，阈值取值偏高则低频次发生值更准。

Taking Sansha station as an example, this paper studies the application effect of Poisson-Gumbel compound extreme value distribution in calculating the return period of typhoon storm surge, which considers the conditions of small samples or irregular extreme value samples and introduces the discrete distribution describing the occurrence of random events. The results show that the calculation results of compound extreme value distribution is relatively sensitive to samples, and the low frequency value of the compound distribution of the sample data with small standard deviation is significantly lower. For the short time series observation data with a certain degree of dispersion, the calculation result of the compound distribution is stable, and the estimation of the low-frequency value is also more accurate. For longer time series data, the high frequency occurrence value is more accurate if the threshold value is a lower, and the low frequency occurrence value is more accurate if the threshold value is a higher.

参考文献：

[1] 自然资源部/国家海洋局.中国海洋灾害公报[EB/OL]. 1989-2019[2020-07-10] . http://www.nmdis.org.cn/hygb/zghyzhgb/. Ministry of Natural Resources/State Oceanic Administration[EB/OL]. Bulletin of China Marine Disaster. 1989-2019[2020-07-10] . http://www.nmdis.org.cn/hygb/zghyzhgb/.
[2] 冯爱青,高江波,吴绍洪,等.气候变化背景下中国风暴潮灾害风险及适应对策研究进展[J].地理科学进展, 2016, 35(11):1411-1419. FENG A Q, GAO J B, WU S H, et al. A review of storm surge disaster risk research and adaptation in China under climate change[J]. Progress in Geography, 2016, 35(11):1411-1419.
[3] 张月霞,王辉.台风风暴潮灾害风险评估研究综述[J].海洋预报, 2016, 33(2):81-88. ZHANG Y X, WANG H. Review of risk assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2016, 33(2):81-88.
[4] 万仕全,周国华,潘柱,等.南京过去100年极端日降水量模拟研究[J].气象学报, 2010, 68(6):790-799. WAN S Q, ZHOU G H, PAN Z, et al. A simulative study of extreme daily rainfall in Nanjing for the past 100 years[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2010, 68(6):790-799.
[5] 刘德辅,马逢时.极值分布理论在计算波高多年分布中的应用[J].应用数学学报, 1976(1):23-37. LIU D F, MA F S. Application of extreme value distribution theory in calculating multi-year distribution of wave heights[J]. Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica, 1976(1):23-37.
[6] 马逢时,刘德辅.海洋工程建筑中设计波高推算的新方法[J].科学通报, 1979, 24(1):33-37. MA F S, LIU D F. A new method for designing wave height calculation in offshore engineering construction[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 1979, 24(1):33-37.
[7] LIU T F, MA F S. Prediction of extreme wave heights and wind velocities[J]. Journal of the Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Division, 1980, 106(4):469-479.
[8] 董胜,李奉利,孙瑞文.风暴增水随机分析的过阈法及其统计计算模式[J].青岛海洋大学学报(自然科学版), 2000, 30(3):542-548. DONG S, LI F L, SUN R W. On the peak over threshold method in the statistical analysis of storm surge elevation and its probability model[J]. Journal of Ocean University of Qingdao, 2000, 30(3):542-548.
[9] 董胜,宋艳,杨志.考虑季节变化的风暴增水随机统计分析[J].海洋工程, 2003, 21(3):68-72. DONG S, SONG Y, YANG Z. Statistical analysis of storm surge elevation considering seasonal variation[J]. The Ocean Engineering, 2003, 21(3):68-72.
[10] 张容焱,张秀芝,蔡连娃.沿海风工程设计风速中泊松-耿贝尔法的应用[J].应用气象学报, 2010, 21(2):237-242. ZHANG R Y, ZHANG X Z, CAI L W. Application of PoissonGumbel distribution to wind speed calculation for the southeast coastland of China[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2010, 21(2):237-242.
[11] 中华人民共和国交通运输部. JTS 145-2-2013海港水文规范[S].北京:人民交通出版社, 2013. Ministry of Communications of the People's Republic of China. JTS 145-2-2013 Code of hydrology for sea harbour[S]. Beijing:People's Communications Press, 2013.
[12] 中华人民共和国交通运输部. JTS 145-2015港口与航道水文规范[S].北京:人民交通出版社, 2015. Ministry of Communications of the People's Republic of China. JTS 145-2015 Code of hydrology for harbour and waterway[S]. Beijing:People's Communications Press, 2015.
[13] GUMBEL E J. Statistics of extremes[M]. New York:Columbia University Press, 1958.
[14] 罗纯,王筑娟. Gumbel分布参数估计及在水位资料分析中应用[J].应用概率统计, 2005, 21(2):169-175. LUO C, WANG Z J. The estimates of the parameters of Gumbel distribution and their application to the analysis of the water level data[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics, 2005, 21(2):169-175.
[15] 董双林. Gumbel分布的参数估计方法的统计分析[J].水利学报, 1989(11):35-42 DONG S L. Statistical analysis of parameter estimation methods for Gumbel distribution[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 1989(11):35-42.
[16] YING M, ZHANG W, YU H, et al. An overview of the China Meteorological Administration tropical cyclone database[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 2014, 31(2):287-301.
[17] 国家市场监督管理总局,国家标准化管理委员会. GB/T 14914.2-2019海洋观测规范第2部分:海滨观测[S].北京:中国标准出版社, 2019. State Administration of Market Supervision, State Standardization Administration. GB/T 14914.2-2019 The Specification for marine observation-Part 2:Offshore observation[S]. Beijing:China Standards Press, 2019.
[18] COLES S. An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values[M]. London:Springer, 2001.
[19] 于福江,董剑希,叶琳,等.中国风暴潮灾害史料集:1949-2009[M].北京:海洋出版社, 2015. YU F J, DONG J X, YE L, et al. Collection of storm surge disasters historical data in China 1949-2009[M]. Beijing:China Ocean Press, 2015.

服务与反馈：

【文章下载】【发表评论】【查看评论】【加入收藏】