首页期刊介绍通知公告编 委 会投稿须知电子期刊广告合作联系我们在线留言
 
预估偏差法集合化台风路径概率预报
作者:刘莹1 2  潘毅1 2  陈永平1 2  袁杰颖1 2 
单位:1. 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210098;
2. 河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院, 江苏 南京 210098
关键词:集合化预报 预估偏差 控制路径 扰动路径 概率分析 
分类号:P457.8
出版年·卷·期(页码):2019·36·第三期(18-23)
摘要:
基于2012-2016年发生在西北太平洋我国24 h警戒线内的所有台风资料,在预估偏差台风控制路径预报结果的基础上,统计台风控制路径预报位置与实测位置之间的预报距离误差,得到台风落入概率相对于无量纲预报误差的经验分布公式。进一步的,分偏快、偏慢、偏左、偏右对各偏离方向分别建立偏台风落入概率相对于无量纲预报误差的经验分布公式。使用该方法对2017年全年的台风进行后报,并比较落入概率预报结果与实际落入概率之间的误差,结果证明二者有较好的一致性。
A probability prediction method for possible location of typhoon tracks is provided in this paper. Based on all typhoon forecast data within the 24-hour warning line over the Northwestern Pacific during 2012-2016 and introduction of the error-estimation ensemble forecast method, the distance error between forecast and measured position of typhoon track during forecast period is calculated. The total probability distribution of typhoon errors that fall within error probability circle can be obtained, and the empirical formula is established. Furthermore, the empirical formula of deviation probability distribution is set up to further refine the probability of different deviation directions, which is fast, slow, left and right. A hindcast ofr typhoons in 2017 is conducted using the probability prediction method. It is found that the error between probability forecast results and actual deviation probability shows significant consistency.
参考文献:
[1] 陈联寿, 丁一汇. 西太平洋台风概论[M]. 科学出版社, 1979.
[2] 娄小芬, 楼茂园, 罗玲, 等."菲特"台风路径和强度预报难点分析[J]. 海洋预报, 2015, 32(1):10-19.
[3] Epstein E S. Stochastic dynamic prediction[J]. Tellus, 1969, 21(6):739-759.
[4] 杜钧, 陈静. 单一值预报向概率预报转变的基础:谈谈集合预报及其带来的变革[J]. 气象, 2010, 36(11):1-11.
[5] 陈静, 陈德辉, 颜宏. 集合数值预报发展与研究进展[J]. 应用气象学报, 2002, 13(4):497-507.
[6] Krishnamurti T N, Kishtawal C M, LaRow T E, et al. Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble[J]. Science, 1999, 285(5433):1548-1550.
[7] Buizza R, Barkmeijer J, Palmer T N, et al. Current status and future developments of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system[J]. Meteorological Applications, 2000, 7(2):163-175.
[8] Zhang Z, Krishnamurti T N. Ensemble forecasting of hurricane tracks[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1997, 78(12):2785-2795.
[9] Zhi X F, Zhang L, Bai Y Q. Application of the multi-model ensemble forecast in the QPF[C]//International Conference on Information Science and Technology. Nanjing, China:IEEE, 2011:657-660.
[10] Zhi X F, Lin C Z, Bai Y Q, et al. Superensemble forecasts of the surface temperature in Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes[J]. Scientia Meteorologica Sinica, 2009, 29(5):569-574.
[11] Zhi X F, Qi H X, Bai Y Q, et al. A comparison of three kinds of multimodel ensemble forecast techniques based on the TIGGE data[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2012, 26(1):41-51.
[12] 丁雪霖, 陈永平, 顾茜. 2013年西北太平洋台风路径集合预报[J]. 河海大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 43(4):361-365.
[13] 袁杰颖, 陈永平, 潘毅, 等. 台风路径集合化预报方法的优化[J]. 海洋预报, 2017, 34(2):37-42.
[14] 王培涛, 于福江, 刘秋兴, 等. 福建沿海精细化台风风暴潮集合数值预报技术研究及应用[J]. 海洋预报, 2010, 27(5):7-15.
服务与反馈:
文章下载】【发表评论】【查看评论】【加入收藏
 
 海洋预报编辑部 地址:北京海淀大慧寺路8号
电话:010-62105776
投稿网址:http://www.hyyb.org.cn
邮箱:bjb@nmefc.cn