全球变暖背景下基于Non-Boussinesq POP模式对海平面高度的模拟和预估

作者：郑益之  陈幸荣  蔡怡

单位：国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081

关键词：全球变暖 Non-Boussinesq 海平面变化

分类号：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2018·35·第六期（58-65）

摘要：

用Non-Boussinesq POP模式和1986-2005年SODA再分析资料的海表面温度、盐度和风应力，模拟了1986-2005年间的全球海平面变化，并根据RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种代表性浓度排放情景下未来气候变化趋势的预测，对未来一个世纪的海平面变化进行预估，在仅考虑热膨胀的前提下，得到了如下结论：（1）在过去20 a间，全球平均海平面高度上升了56 mm，上升较大的海域主要为西北太平洋、南太平洋中部和南大西洋；（2）到2100年，RCP4.5情景下全球平均海平面上升0.36 m，RCP8.5情景下全球平均海平面上升0.43 m；（3）未来海平面变化较大的海域包括西北太平洋、西南太平洋、西南大西洋和印度洋，南大洋、北大西洋和赤道太平洋海平面变化相对较小。

Using Non-Boussinesq POP model and the sea surface temperature, the sea surface salinity and the wind stress from SODA reanalysis data, the global sea level changes from 1986-2005 were simulated and under the Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the global sea level changes during the future century were estimated. The conclusions obtained are (1) Global mean sea level raised 56mm during the last 20 years. The significant sea level increase located in the areas such as the North-West Pacific, middle of South Pacific and South Atlantic. (2) The global mean sea level would raise 0.36m and 0.43m respectively under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in 2100.(3) In future, the significant sea level increase would locate in the areas such as the North-West Pacific, South-West Pacific, South-West Atlantic and Indian Ocean. The less significant increase would locate in the Antarctic Ocean, North Atlantic and Equatorial Pacific.

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