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基于CESM模式同化及后报实验的南海气候特征分析
作者:宋春阳1  姜华1  张守文1  陈幸荣1  王辉1 2 
单位:1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 国家海洋局 海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室, 北京 100081
关键词:CESM 南海 nudging 后报 
分类号:P732.5
出版年·卷·期(页码):2018·35·第六期(48-57)
摘要:
基于气候模式CESM,利用牛顿松弛逼近(nudging)方法将次表层海温同化到海洋模式中,通过多种评估方法对1982-2011年同化和后报结果的南海海区进行分析。CESM同化和后报结果能够刻画出南海海表面温度、海表面流场、降水和850 hPa风场的空间基本特征,并且能比较好的再现海表面温度和降水随时间变化规律,nudging同化结果要优于超前1个月、3个月预报。但对南海大部分海区还存在0.5℃以内的冷偏差,流场强度模拟偏弱,850 hPa风场模拟偏强的误差。同化和后报结果表明模式对夏季和秋季海表面温度模拟效果较好,海表面温度与东亚夏季风相关性在空间分布形态及量值方面模拟较为一致,而降水与东亚夏季风相关性模拟在空间分布形态及量值方面都有一定误差。南海气候模拟难点在于其夏季海气相互作用,nudging同化结果能较好的模拟出南海北部夏季海表面温度变化对大气变化的响应,同大气模式相比考虑了南海海区的海气相互作用这一特殊性。
A simple sub-surface sea temperature nudging scheme is developed for Community Earth System Model (CESM), the assimilation and hindcast results in the South China Sea (SCS) have been evaluated for the period 1982-2011. The results show that the CESM can simulate the spatial distribution of SST, sea surface velocity, precipitation, sea level pressure and 850hpa wind speed in the SCS well. The time series of SST and precipitation can also be well reproduced, and nudging assimilation results are better than 1 month and 3 month lead time. However, in most parts of the SCS model simulation still exits 0.5℃ cold biases, weaker sea surface velocity and stronger 850hpa wind speed.The assimilation and hindcast results show that SST can be better simulated in summer and autumn than in other seasaons. The SST is well correlated with EASM index in spatial distribution and magnitude, while the precipitation is not. The difficulty of climate simulation in the SCS is the air-sea interaction in summer, while nudging assimilation results can simulate better summer SST changes in response to atmospheric change of northern South China Sea. Compared with atmospheric model, the CESM can consider the particularity of air-sea interaction in the South China Sea.
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